A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
